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class="post-22352 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-finance">
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转自：新华财经 新华财经北京3月19日电（吴郑思） 经过二月中下旬的短暂修整后，三月以来“铜博士”涨势重启，COMEX期铜震荡攀升，重新回到4.8美分/磅上方，伦敦金属交易所的3个月期铜也正在逼近每吨一万美元大关，而沪铜 也一举站上了每吨80000元关口，刷新了八个多月的高点。
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转自：新华财经
新华财经北京3月19日电（吴郑思） 经过二月中下旬的短暂修整后，三月以来“铜博士”涨势重启，COMEX期铜震荡攀升，重新回到4.8美分/磅上方，伦敦金属交易所的3个月期铜也正在逼近每吨一万美元大关，而沪铜也一举站上了每吨80000元关口，刷新了八个多月的高点。
关税政策驱动高溢价 加剧全球铜市供应不平衡
自今年1月份以来，在美国特朗普政府关税政策的影响下，纽约和伦敦市场的铜溢价大幅飙升，对不同区域铜供应带来了明显影响，并推动铜价在北半球传统淡季的1月份强势上涨。
受美国政府的关税政策和美国铜库存水平偏低的双重影响，自今年1月份以来，COMEX期铜相较伦敦3个月期铜的价格从去年12月份的不足每吨100美元快速上涨，在2月中旬突破了每吨1000美元大关。至3月中旬，COMEX-LME的溢价仍维持在每吨800至1000美元的历史高位（看下图）。
高溢价驱动了两地积极的跨市套利交易：伦敦铜库存中可在COMEX市场交割注册品牌的仓单被注销并转移至美国市场；一部分本该发往伦敦仓库的非洲、南美等铜货源被运往北美。
由于本轮高溢价的背后是美国关税政策的不确定性，因此在关税明朗前，机构对高溢价持续并进而导致美国乃至全球性铜供应紧张的预期强烈。
花旗的分析师在上周的报告中表示，未来三个月内，铜价将突破1万美元/吨大关，全球铜市将持续紧张直至美国进口关税政策明朗。尤其是美国以外的实物铜市场紧张局面可能会持续到5月或6月，并可能暂时抵消“更广泛的美国关税公告带来的价格阻力”。
高盛则认为，到第三季度末，铜价上涨将使美国铜库存从目前的9.5万吨激增到至少30万至40万吨，占全球报告库存的45-60%，其他地区的铜库存将非常低。
中信证券则在最新研报中指出，测算未来2-3个月内，即便考虑调用LME库存以及智利、秘鲁等主产国50%产量的极限情形，美国的铜供给缺口或也难以得到缓解，预计3-5月缺口分别为15.4万吨、6.7万吨和1.1万吨。若考虑关税担忧所带来的备货情绪高涨，缺口料将进一步扩大。
铜矿供应约束难解 冶炼企业检修季即将展开
除了COMEX铜高溢价带来的供需错配，近几年持续困扰铜市场的原料供应短缺问题短时也难见根本缓解。
由于前几年铜矿投资减少、矿石品位下降，自2023年四季度以来，铜精矿加工费一路下滑，2024年全年更是基本维持在历史低位，这使得铜冶炼商面对亏损威胁，存在进行计划外停减产的可能。
回顾2024年3月至5月铜价的上涨，中国部分大型冶炼厂同意削减一些亏损工厂产量以应对原材料供应短缺，是驱动铜价上涨的主要原因。这一轮上涨最终以铜价先后刷新历史新高而告终。
需要特别注意的是，彼时代表铜精矿加工费的SMM进口铜精矿指数还在15.29美元/吨（截至2024年3月8日），而截至2025年3月7日，该指数已经跌至-15.83美元/吨。
在此背景下，国内铜冶炼厂可能在3月份加大检修的预期开始在市场上逐步发酵，并抵消了一部分因关税和美国经济衰退预期造成的对铜未来需求的利空影响。
展望二季度，在原料供应约束之下，机构也倾向于未来几个月国内电解铜产量下滑。行业研究机构上海钢联（Mysteel）在近期文章中称，从市场报价来看，后续铜精矿供给压力将进一步提升，而再生铜冶炼阳极部分虽有潜力，但行业政策调整对其影响并未减弱，两个核心原料的供给预期依旧偏紧，二季度冶炼企业或将迎来检修小高峰，因此后续产量或将表现下滑，而3月国内电解铜产量也或将是今年的峰值。
中国需求旺季开启 全球铜库存去化
在供应受到约束的同时，随着中国“金三银四”传统需求旺季的开启，全球最大的铜消费市场需求开始显著回升。直观表现为中国市场铜库存开启去化。
上海期货交易所的数据显示，截至3月14日当周，注册仓库的铜库存环比下降近1.2万吨，降幅较前一周扩大约1万吨。现货市场上，SMM的数据显示，截至3月13日当周，国内主流地区电解铜库存为35.55万吨，周度去库1.25万吨，且较周一下降了0.45万吨，为连续第二周去库。
反映在升贴水上，据SMM数据，目前国内现货电解铜的升贴水已经从2月中旬的贴水超100元/吨的水平，回升至升水20元/吨左右，侧面反映了现货市场供需关系的改善。
图为国内现货铜升贴水变化
而在全球市场来看，铜库存的去化短期也具有普遍性。在伦敦市场，近两周，铜库存去化近两周也出现加速：截至3月14日，伦铜库存已经降至23.4万吨，相比之下，前两周同期库存分别在25.73万吨和26.21万吨。而在COMEX市场，尽管受到高溢价影响，COMEX铜报告库存已经从去年6月份时的不足万吨水平快速修复至9万吨以上，但与今年2月份超过10万吨的水平相比，目前仅9.3万吨左右的报告库存水平也出现了明显下滑。
显性库存的去化，强化了铜供应约束对铜价的利多支撑。
扰动因素犹存 铜价仍面临潜在波动风险
需要指出的是，虽然供应约束利多铜价，但基本面的潜在变化也会给市场预期带来影响，进而加大铜价的波动风险。
就近期而言，除了美国关税政策政策的不确定性以外，铜产业链供需变化，也可能对市场预期带来扰动。
从国内市场来看，SMM的调研显示，最新一周国内精铜杆企业和铜线缆企业开工率均低于预期，侧面反映高铜价对下游需求的抑制。
而在国际市场上，一方面，美股近期大幅回落，令市场对美国经济在关税政策影响下陷入衰退的担忧升温，这也给铜等工业金属远期需求带来影响。另一方面，有报道称，巴拿马授权出口第一量子矿业（First Quantum Minerals）在巴拿马囤积的铜精矿，审查被关闭的Cobre Panama铜矿并重启一座运营该矿所需的发电厂。此举引发对巴拿马有意重启该铜矿的猜测。
综上所述，尽管铜市场在短期供需错配的约束下有望维持偏强走势，仍是市场的共识，但徘徊在历史高位附近的铜价面临的波动风险也值得警惕。
新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障
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http://hdy315.cn/wp-content/themes/damenhu/assets/img/weixin-qrcode.png)
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http://hdy315.cn/wp-content/themes/damenhu/assets/img/weixin-code.png)
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http://hdy315.cn/wp-content/themes/damenhu/assets/img/alipay-code.png)
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http://hdy315.cn/wp-content/themes/damenhu/thumb.php?src=//finance.sina.com.cn/tgdata/zw_account_stock.js&w=300&h=180)
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http://hdy315.cn/wp-content/themes/damenhu/thumb.php?src=<br />
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http://hdy315.cn/wp-content/themes/damenhu/thumb.php?src=<br />
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Warning: mysqli_query(): (HY000/1194): Table 'wp_options' is marked as crashed and should be repaired in /www/wwwroot/bbs.all2025.com/wp-includes/class-wpdb.php on line 2344
Warning: mysqli_query(): (HY000/1194): Table 'wp_options' is marked as crashed and should be repaired in /www/wwwroot/bbs.all2025.com/wp-includes/class-wpdb.php on line 2344
Warning: mysqli_query(): (HY000/1194): Table 'wp_options' is marked as crashed and should be repaired in /www/wwwroot/bbs.all2025.com/wp-includes/class-wpdb.php on line 2344